A Glimpse of Jevons Paradox: Why Software Developers Need to Pivot, Not Panic
aka The Rebound Effect
I. The Setup
In the quiet corners of Victorian England, an economist named William Stanley Jevons noticed something odd. Coal-powered steam engines were becoming more efficient, yet Britain was using more coal than ever. The logic flipped: the more efficient we became, the more we consumed.
That contradiction got a name: Jevons Paradox.
II. Fast Forward to Now
It’s 2025. Instead of coal, the fuel is code. And AI just built an entire app in 30 seconds. Developers everywhere are feeling an existential threat, like taxi drivers seeing the uber app drop
Efficiency is up. Time-to-deploy is down. Demand for raw coding hours? Unclear.
III. The Misread
Some developers assume this means they’re obsolete. If AI can code, then the need for coders must vanish, right?
Wrong. That’s not how Jevons saw it. And not how history has played it.
IV. The Flip
More efficiency doesn’t reduce demand, it explodes it.
Suddenly, people who never considered software solutions are building custom tools.
Mom-and-pop shops automate scheduling.
Nonprofits spin up donor dashboards.
The ceiling isn’t falling, it’s been raised.
V. The Reframe
The role of developers is changing, not disappearing.
From bricklayers to architects.
From syntax grinders to system thinkers.
From code monkeys to strategic enablers.
VI. The Pivot
To thrive in this new landscape, devs must zoom out:
Learn to orchestrate tools, not just build them
Speak the language of problems, not just solutions
Champion outcomes over elegance
VII. The Closer
Jevons didn’t see a crisis, he saw a transformation.
AI isn’t the end of software development.
It’s the beginning of software deployment on a scale we’ve never seen.
So pivot. Don’t panic.
Because this isn’t decline.
It’s a rebound.